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AGI generates and disseminates research and ideas on global issues from Asian perspectives.

18/06/2026

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗧𝗿𝘂𝗺𝗽-𝗫𝗶 𝗺𝗲𝗲𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴: 𝗺𝗮𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲 𝘀𝗮𝗳𝗲 𝗯𝗲𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗺𝗶𝗱𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗺 𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻

In the recent publication of Geoeconomic Dynamics Update, Heiwai Tang, AGI Director; and Guanzheng Sun, AGI Research Assistant, examine the shifting landscape of US-China trade.

While the recent Trump-Xi meeting did not end the trans-Pacific trade dispute, it provided a practical direction for strategic trade between the two economic giants. Both governments appear motivated to keep selected trade and investment channels open ahead of the 2026 midterms, particularly in sectors where disruption carries heavy political or industrial costs.

The update highlights significant structural shifts and divergences across key sectors:

• 𝗔𝗴𝗿𝗶𝗰𝘂𝗹𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲: US agricultural exports to China fell to just 22% of their 2022 level by 2025, with Brazil strengthening its lead in soybeans, beef, and poultry.

• 𝗖𝗿𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗠𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹𝘀: China’s rare earth-related exports to the US showed a clear divergence—while rare earth metals declined in 2024, exports of compounds and permanent magnets continued to grow.

• 𝗔𝗲𝗿𝗼𝘀𝗽𝗮𝗰𝗲: The competitive landscape has shifted dramatically. Boeing received only 61 orders from China and Hong Kong, China between 2019 and 2025, whereas Airbus recorded 897 orders from 2021 to 2026 YTD.

Understanding these targeted areas of decoupling and managed trade is essential for navigating today's global supply chains and geopolitical risks.

Read the full article: https://www.asiaglobalinstitute.hku.hk/geo-news/trump-xi-meeting-making-trade-safe-midterm-election

11/06/2026

Heiwai Tang, AGI Director, discusses in Financial Times Chinese on how the overseas expansion of Chinese companies, like BYD and TikTok, marks a new era of globalization. Driven by domestic market saturation, technological superiority, and cost advantages, these companies seek global markets while generating localized value to mitigate geopolitical and regulatory pressures. Unlike traditional Western or Japanese expansions, modern Chinese globalization faces complex headwinds including data security compliance and protectionist policies. Consequently, Tang advises that Chinese enterprises must adopt multi-centric governance models and foster mutually beneficial relationships with local stakeholders to ensure successful and welcomed integration into the global economy.

Read the full article: https://ftchinese.com/story/001109977 (Chinese only)

11/06/2026

Yuen Yuen Ang, AGI Senior Fellow, is quoted at length in The Economist's June 2026 report: "At no time in modern history has a large country gone all in on investment in high-end technology while also navigating a slowing economy and a local government debt crisis, notes Yuen Yuen Ang of Johns Hopkins University. Although the drag from the property crash will lessen over the next few years, and eventually disappear, it would not take much to choke the new growth engine. Itis already being stress-tested by weakening demand for Chinese evs, a prolonged trade war and an energy crisis. China’s paramount leader, Xi Jinping, is nevertheless betting that the new model of growth kicks in faster than the old one, driven by land sales and construction, collapses. It is a high-stakes gamble."

Ang's quotes build on her 2024 oped in Project Syndicate, "China's Economic Paradox," where she highlighted the combination of a tech boom and growth slump as a defining feature of China's economic trajectory.

Read the full article:
1. China is innovative. Its economy is a mess. Which will win out?
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/06/08/china-is-innovative-its-economy-is-a-mess-which-will-win-out

2. China's Economic Paradox
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/xi-jinping-policies-led-to-tech-boom-growth-slump-by-yuen-yuen-ang-2024-09

11/06/2026

In "Industrial Policy for an Age of Uncertainty" (Project Syndicate, May 2026), Yuen Yuen Ang, AGI Senior Fellow, begins with a distinction between uncertainty and risk: uncertainty does not mean unpredictability or calculable risk, but unknown possibilities that cannot be known in advance. In the 21st century, this condition is made acute by simultaneous disruptions across AI, deglobalization, climate, and geopolitics. Because winners cannot be identified ex ante, the challenge of industrial policy shifts from picking winners to discovering them, then tailoring support beyond the usual toolkit of tariffs and subsidies. One mechanism is directed improvisation, in which the state exercises influence rather than control to discover and scale successes that were not expected by planners.

Read the full article: https://polytunity.substack.com/p/industrial-policy-under-uncertainty

04/06/2026

AGI Senior Fellow, Angela Zhang, highlights in the Project Syndicate on how the US backlash against AI data centers—driven by community concerns over energy and environmental costs—is rapidly growing. While tech executives fear that local opposition and regulation will allow China to win the AI race, Zhang argues China’s aggressive, top-down expansion serves as a cautionary tale of massive overcapacity and canceled projects. Ultimately, democratic friction acts as a vital guardrail. It prevents a wasteful infrastructure bubble, protects local environments, and gives citizens a necessary voice in shaping the speed and impact of the AI revolution.

Read the full article: https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-shows-why-america-should-not-rush-to-build-more-data-centers-by-angela-huyue-zhang-2026-06?referral=cdf364

26/05/2026

Andrew Sheng, AGI Distinguished Fellow, alerted in South China Morning Post that investors in the AI-driven stock market bubble risk forgetting painful historical lessons. The article emphasizes that tech-market hype cannot exist independent of the broader economy. With macroeconomic pressures mounting, including liquidity drains and systemic risks tied to the ongoing war with Iran, Sheng argues that the current AI boom is highly vulnerable. Ultimately, he warns that blind enthusiasm for technological disruption must not blind financial markets to structural realities and impending corrections.

Read the full article: https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3354470/investors-ai-driven-bubble-risk-forgetting-painful-lessons

26/05/2026

Michael Spence, Nobel Laureate and AGI Advisory Board Chairman, was interviewed by CGTN at the Global Finance Forum to analyze the current era of "permanent crisis." The discussion highlighted that while pragmatic yet unconventional US-China dynamics and the ongoing US-Iran conflict continue to challenge global growth, the world remains in a tug-of-war between these geopolitical disruptions and the massive positive potential of rapid AI advancements. Crucially, the interview noted that as the US steps back from multilateralism, eroding trust in the dollar is accelerating a global shift toward a diversified, multi-currency monetary system.

Watch the full interview: https://news.cgtn.com/news/2026-05-21/Exclusive-Nobel-laureate-Michael-Spence-on-China-US-AI-currencies-1NilPJ2TOG4/index.html

15/05/2026

Jaime Augusto Zobel de Ayala, AGI Board Member, was interviewed by McKinsey to discuss how Ayala Corporation has thrived across seven generations. He highlights that the secret to their longevity lies in balancing long-term stewardship with a constant drive for innovation. By aligning corporate strategy with the Philippines' national development, the group has built lasting public trust. Zóbel de Ayala emphasizes that modern leaders must be willing to disrupt their own business models and remain deeply committed to social impact, ensuring that the company’s growth directly mirrors the prosperity of the communities it serves. Read the full interview: https://bit.ly/4wv98A1

13/05/2026

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗿𝗱 𝗮𝗻𝗻𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗮𝗿𝘆 𝗼𝗳 𝗥𝗖𝗘𝗣: 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲 𝘁𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗱𝘀, 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗰 𝘀𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘁𝗵, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗼𝗮𝗱 𝗮𝗵𝗲𝗮𝗱

Three years since its implementation, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership ( ) has evolved from a landmark agreement into a primary engine for regional integration. In our latest publication, Heiwai Tang, AGI Director, and Guanzheng Sun, AGI Research Assistant, examine how the agreement is reconfiguring global value chains and driving the strategic sectoral growth defining the world’s largest free trade bloc. Key takeaways:

𝟭. 𝗚𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴: The unified rules of origin framework is incentivizing a transition toward regionalized supply chains, allowing for more efficient sourcing and production within the member states.

𝟮. 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗰 𝘀𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘁𝗵: Preferential tariff treatments and trade facilitation measures are driving growth in key industries, fostering a more integrated and competitive industrial landscape across the Asia-Pacific.

𝟯. 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗶𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗮𝗴𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘀𝘁 𝘃𝗼𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆: RCEP serves as a critical stabilizing force, deepening economic interdependence among members to mitigate the risks of global geopolitical shifts and supply chain disruptions.

𝟰. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗼𝗮𝗱 𝗮𝗵𝗲𝗮𝗱: Future success hinges on moving beyond traditional trade in goods to address modern challenges, including digital economy standards, services trade, and the reduction of non-tariff barriers.

𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗶𝘁𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘂𝗺: 𝗔𝗚𝗜 𝗥𝗖𝗘𝗣 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗰𝗸𝗲𝗿
Launched in July 2024, the AGI RCEP Trade Tracker aims to provide the real-time, empirical evidence behind these shifting dynamics. By offering a granular look at intra-regional trade flows and monthly commodity performance, the tracker serves as a vital resource for scholars, business leaders, and policy makers to visualize market shifts and monitor the region's industrial dynamics.

🔗 Read the full article: https://www.asiaglobalinstitute.hku.hk/news-post/third-anniversary-rcep-trade-trends-strategic-sectoral-growth-and-road-ahead
📊 Explore the AGI RCEP Trade Tracker: https://www.asiaglobalinstitute.hku.hk/rcep-trade-tracker

13/05/2026

Andrew Sheng, AGI Distinguished Fellow, argues in the South China Morning Post SCMP that the re-election of Donald Trump signals the definitive end of the post-WWII liberal order. With "the gloves off," global relations are shifting from cooperation toward raw power dynamics and protectionism. Sheng suggests that we may not see a "New World Order" at all, but rather a fragmented, "disordered" world where nations must navigate unpredictable bilateral deals. For Asia, this means the safety net of international law is fraying, necessitating greater self-reliance and strategic agility to survive an era of unprecedented systemic instability.

Read the full article: https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3352758/thanks-trump-gloves-are-there-may-be-no-new-global-order

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