Economics of the Middle East Research Group- CNMS

18/05/2026

The war has exposed the political economy of volatility.

When chaos becomes politically useful and economically rewarding, powerful insiders can benefit from instability while ordinary citizens absorb the costs.

In an article in Project Syndicate, Prof. Farzanegan (Centrum für Nah- und Mittelost-Studien Marburg) examines how coercion, uncertainty, and private gain interact in the Iran war.

Mohammad Reza Farzanegan explains how volatility creates distorted incentives that make escalation more profitable than peace.

01/05/2026

New letter in Science: “Support besieged Iranian scientists”

A new letter by Reza Majdzadeh (University of Essex) and Mohammad Reza Farzanegan (Centrum für Nah- und Mittelost-Studien Marburg) has been published in Science.

The letter discusses the multiple and reinforcing pressures facing Iranian scientists today: military conflict, damage to research infrastructure, disruptions to electricity and telecommunications, internet shutdowns, sanctions, blocked academic payments, visa barriers, and increasing institutional isolation.

These constraints do not only affect individual researchers. They disrupt universities, limit opportunities for students, and weaken global scientific exchange.

The authors call for concrete policy responses, including humanitarian science corridors, reliable access to journals and databases, lawful channels for academic payments, and targeted support for researchers working under crisis conditions.

Protecting scientists in such environments is not only a national concern. It is essential for the integrity and continuity of global science.

Read more:

HomeScienceVol. 392, No. 6797Support besieged Iranian scientistsBack To Vol. 392, No. 6797 No accessLetter Share on Support besieged Iranian scientistsReza Majdzadeh and Mohammad Reza FarzaneganAuthors Info & AffiliationsScience30 Apr 2026Vol 392, Issue 6797p. 473DOI: 10.1126/science.aeh3242 PREVIOU...

17/04/2026

Global food security is often framed in terms of grain supply. Our new correspondence published in Nature Food shows this is incomplete.

A large share of nitrogen fertilizers, a critical input for modern agriculture, passes through the Strait of Hormuz. This creates a hidden but significant vulnerability. Disruptions in this chokepoint can simultaneously raise energy prices, fertilizer costs, and ultimately food prices.

Our evidence also highlights uneven exposure across countries. While Brazil benefits from diversified supply, countries like India and Australia rely much more heavily on this route and are therefore more vulnerable.

Strengthening global food security requires shifting attention beyond crops to input supply chains. Diversification is not optional.

Read the correspondence here:
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-026-01340-1
Centrum für Nah- und Mittelost-Studien Marburg

01/11/2025

"Health safeguards under the UN's reimposition of sanctions on Iran" (Volume 406, Issue 10515, p2056-2057, November 01, 2025)

Maziar Moradi-Lakeh ∙ Ruth Gibson ∙ Mohammad Farzanegan ∙ Jerg Gutmann ∙ Reza Majdzadehe

On Sept 28, 2025, the UN Security Council snapback under Resolution 2231 reinstated multilateral on related to insufficient compliance in international oversight of its nuclear programme.

This Correspondence in The LANCET does not take a position on the UN Security Council decision to reimpose multilateral sanctions. We focus on the implications of these geopolitical decisions for Iran's population, against the backdrop of devastating impacts on at-risk populations under previous sanctions.

Centrum für Nah- und Mittelost-Studien Marburg,
Philipps-Universität Marburg

On Sept 28, 2025, the UN Security Council snapback under Resolution 2231 reinstated multilateral sanctions on Iran related to insufficient compliance in international oversight of its nuclear programme.1 This Correspondence does not take a position on the UN Security Council decision to reimpose mul...

31/10/2025

Our latest research on "Political connections and business sentiment in the region" has just been published with Springer Nature in " ":
Read here: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10602-025-09488-x

We tend to believe that business success is built on tangible foundations: a superior product, a brilliant market strategy, sound financial management, and operational efficiency. These are the metrics tracked on spreadsheets and reported to shareholders. But what if one of the most powerful drivers of a company's trajectory isn't found in a financial statement, but in the collective mindset of its leadership?

Our new study focusing on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region uncovers an interesting factor in corporate success: a firm's psychological outlook. Our research is particularly relevant in a post-Arab Spring context, where scholarly debates about crony capitalism have surged. It reveals that a company's confidence and optimism about its future can be a significant advantage, and it identifies a surprising driver of this sentiment: political connections.

Centrum für Nah- und Mittelost-Studien Marburg
Economic Research Forum (ERF_Latest)

18/10/2025

Our new article (with slides) published in the VoxDev: International sanctions are used as a powerful tool of statecraft, but their broader societal consequences are often overlooked. Since 2012, comprehensive sanctions on Iran have drastically eroded its middle class, undoing decades of social progress and undermining a key engine of economic stability and political moderation.

Centrum für Nah- und Mittelost-Studien Marburg, Crown Center for Middle East Studies, Nader Habibi

International sanctions are used as a powerful tool of statecraft, but their broader societal consequences are often overlooked. Since 2012, comprehensive sanctions on Iran have drastically eroded its middle class, undoing decades of social progress and undermining a key engine of economic stability...

05/10/2025

Wir begrüßen Sie herzlich am Centrum für Nah- und Mitteloststudien (CNMS) und freuen uns, Sie im Oktober persönlich kennenzulernen. In der Einführungswoche, in der Sie eine Menge Infos zum Studium und Studienverlauf erhalten, lernen Sie auch die Dozentinnen und Dozenten des CNMS und Ihre Kommil...

01/10/2025

International imposed on from 2012 have reduced the size of the country’s , according to new research summarised in this column. The findings highlight the profound social consequences of economic pressure, not least given the crucial role of that segment of society for national innovation, growth and stability.
The study underscores the need for policies to safeguard the civilian population in countries targeted by sanctions.
https://theforum.erf.org.eg/2025/09/30/sanctions-and-the-shrinking-size-of-irans-middle-class/

Centrum für Nah- und Mittelost-Studien Marburg
Nader Habibi
Crown Center for Middle East Studies

International sanctions on Iran are likely to become more severe over the coming months. A recent failed resolution in the United Nations (UN) Security Council to continue the sanctions relief on 19 September 2025 has paved the way for the automatic re-imposition of pre-2015 UN sanctions through the...

29/09/2025

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=18k-W8uJw1k

International sanctions have been reimposed on Iran for the first time in a decade. Iranians are already feeling the effect as gold prices and exchange rates...

29/09/2025

"As sweeping UN sanctions are reimposed on Iran on 28 September 2025, those who pushed for them should ask themselves: Are we making the world a safer place, or are we just creating more misery and empowering the very actors that we claim to oppose?
These sanctions are no different from previous ones. They are a reckless gamble that will end up punishing the country’s future leaders instead of its current ones."

Read the full story in a new op-ed by Professors Farzanegan and Habibi, published on 28 September in Al Jazeera: https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2025/9/28/sanctions-on-iran-have-been-a-spectacular-strategic-failure-for-the-west

Centrum für Nah- und Mittelost-Studien Marburg

Sanctions have destroyed the Iranian middle class – the very driver of stability and moderation.