01/09/2026
MONTHLY MONEY NOTE: Money growth has slowed in the USA in the last three months, despite the unusually high Federal deficits in June and July. The data have to be watched to see if this is a new trend. Money growth has also slowed in China since March. By contrast, the Indian banking system continues to grow at annual rates in the mid-teens % on the back of booming credit and vigorous supply-side dynamism. We have argued in recent commentary that - with these three economies accounting for roughly 40% - 50% of world output - the world economy would have been heading for above-trend growth in 2026 before the shock of the Iran hostilities. This view may have to be rethought. The persistence of the Gulf hostilities – and the intensification of the Russia-Ukraine conflict – make conjectures about the worldeconomy in late 2026 and 2027 hazardous. Broad money in the Eurozone is growing at a modest level whereas in the UK it is somewhat on the high side relative to the 2% inflation target. The giant so-called “fiscal stimulus” in Japan has not led to an upturn in money growth. Massive foreign exchange intervention to support the yen has offset buoyant bank credit.
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Monthly monetary update Every month, the Institute of International Monetary Research produces a series of notes analysing the latest monetary trends in the world’s largest economies – …