29/04/2026
New paper published coauthored by Lorenzo Villani, Giulio Castelli, Enrico Lucca and Elena Bresci from the Water Harvesting Lab.
Villani L, Piemontese L, Castelli G, Borgo A, Ghilain N, Van Schaeybroeck B, Lucca E, Aslam MF, Debolini M, Bouizrou I, Yimer EA, Baudewyn M, Jaramillo F, Trabucco A, van Griensven A, Penna D and Bresci E (2026). Neglecting plant physiology: systematic overestimation of drought projections. Environmental Research: Climate
By reviewing current literature, we show that most drought projections overlook a crucial mechanism thoroughly studied by climatologists, ecohydrologists, and ecophysiologists. Vegetation response to CO₂ implies an increased plant water-use efficiency and a reduced stomatal conductance, leading to lower atmospheric evaporative demand (AED).
AED is increasingly being considered in drought research through its inclusion in indices like the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). As most projections neglect this aspect, future drought is often overestimated, especially in arid climates under high-emission scenarios.
Based on a sample of publications, we quantify the overestimation of future drought-affected areas by up to 17.4% under high-emission scenarios.
We hope that this study will promote the consideration of vegetation response in new drought projections and foster collaboration between different research communities to improve our understanding of this fascinating but often neglected research topic.
Read the full Open Access paper here:
https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ae583c
Neglecting plant physiology: systematic overestimation of drought projections, Villani, Lorenzo, Piemontese, Luigi, Castelli, Giulio, Borgo, Andrea, Ghilain, Nicolas, Van Schaeybroeck, Bert, Lucca, Enrico, Aslam, Muhammad Faizan, Debolini, Marta, Bouizrou, Ismail, Yimer, Estifanos Addisu, Baudewyn,....
