![[Seminario scientifico]The next Department seminar will take place next week on Tuesday, June 9, in room B4, 2-3, online...](https://img4.unis10.com/173/352/1569081101733523.jpg)
05/06/2026
[Seminario scientifico]
The next Department seminar will take place next week on Tuesday, June 9, in room B4, 2-3, online on Microsoft Teams using the link below.
📆 June 9, 2PM – 3PM
📍Room B4 (first floor), via Muroni 25
💻Online: https://bit.ly/4uf4YKs
🗣𝐒𝐩𝐞𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐫: Gianni Carboni | DiSea Uniss
𝐓𝐢𝐭𝐥𝐞: Health in times of crisis: individual-level evidence of the Thomas Effect in Europe during the Great Recession
𝗔𝗯𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗰𝘁: This study revisits the so-called Thomas Effect—or healthy recession paradox—which posits a pro-cyclical relationship between mortality and economic cycle, suggesting that mortality (and possibly morbidity) declines during recessions. While most evidence has been derived from aggregate data, we assess whether the phenomenon also holds at the individual level, focusing on the Great Recession in Europe. We combine longitudinal microdata from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) with local unemployment data from Eurostat. The intensity of exposure to the economic downturn is measured as the change in local unemployment between 2007 and 2010, and individuals are classified into tertiles representing no, moderate, and severe crisis exposure. Our analytical sample includes 41,909 individuals and 121,741 observations distributed across 104 European NUTS regions (73 NUTS2 and 30 NUTS1). Using difference-in-differences technique with NUTS and year fixed effects, we estimate the causal effect of the Great Recession on self-reported health, measured by the number of chronic diseases (multimorbidity). Results reveal a negative (beneficial) and statistically significant effect: individuals in more affected regions experienced greater post-crisis reductions in multimorbidity. Event-study evidence supports the parallel-trends assumption, and extensive robustness checks confirm the validity of our findings. Overall, the results provide strong empirical support for the Thomas Effect at the individual level. At least in Europe during the Great Recession, economic contraction appears to have paradoxically improved health outcomes, shedding new light on the complex links between macroeconomic shocks and individual well-being.
🗣Gianni Carboni is a post-doc researcher at the University of Sassari, Department of Economics and Business. His research focuses on the relationship between economic cycles, public policies, health, mortality, and demographic change. His work combines demographic analysis, applied causal inference, and spatial methods to study health inequalities, longevity, and territorial disparities.
𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝗮 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗲𝘁𝗲 𝗹𝗶𝘀𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝘀𝗰𝗵𝗲𝗱𝘂𝗹𝗲𝗱 𝘀𝗲𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗿𝘀, 𝗽𝗹𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗶𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗱𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝘄𝗲𝗯𝗽𝗮𝗴𝗲 👇https://www.disea.uniss.it/it/ricerca/seminari-di-ricerca
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