25/06/2022
RUSSIAN -UKRAINIAN WAR, AND INEVITABILITY OF NEW INTERNATIONAL ORDER
At the end of cold war, the international system has been at centre piece of American unipolarism. The American unipolarity power, created her hegemonic influence and power in the global political structure. Such grip enabled the Americans to influenced and dictate the pros and cons of global system and it's political institutions. The emergent of United States as a unipolar power as described by some writers, created some elements of global peace and stability. Any rise to challenge such grip, always met with resistance and reactions. Americans in their view, conceived themselves as an ordained global power which has come to stay, Any other in their perception must be crushed at all costs. This can be attest in the philosophy of American Exceptionalism being propagated in their various institutions. This American Exceptionalism in the description of some writers connote American superiority over all nations both in political and other ways of life. Some scholars described this philosophy as a racial and discriminative ideal. One of the American politician commented, “ America is Atlantic power and America will also be Indo-Pacific power.
But, the recent events in the global arena especially the Ukrainian war, has made some thinkers and policy makers to pondered. A major question in their discourse? Are we on the verge of transcending to a new international order anchored on the basis of multipolarity. According to George Hodge a fellow at Woodrow Wilson International Center for scholars, opined that the global system is on the verge of evolution. He emphasized that, there are multiple players who needed recognition and accommodation, And for them the only way to achieve such is to destabilize the current order which according to them is anchored on the basis of inequality. He laid emphasis on China, North Korea, India, Iran and Russia. According to him, these countries want an accommodation in the decision making processes especially when it comes to political, economic and technological productions. According to him, these nations perceived American unipolarity as a hegemonic. In essence, we will look at how this Ukrainian war, could inevitably lead to reemergent of multipolarity balance in the international affairs. At the end of Westphalian treaty of 1648, the international politics and system was anchored on the basis of multipolarity balance of power. Such continued until the emergent of world war two, which brought in Bipolar order in the case of United States of America and Union of Soviet Socialist Republic USSR. The emergent of duo, restructured the world on the bipolar international order. At this period, the two powers dictate and influenced the global decision making and politics. These continued, until the demise of USSR in 1990. The disintegration of USSR, brought America as unipolar power in the global affairs.
At the emergence of 21st century world, most countries especially on the global south began to anticipate the return to the multipolarity, where according to them, equity and justice will be Institutionalised. The anxiousness of these countries, pushed them into alignment with the emerging powers such as Russia, China and India. Such realignment can be attest in the case of this Ukrainian -Russian war, where most countries within the global south, adopted the principle of neutrality. Such neutral stand, in the view of some scholars was a message that the philosophy of unipolarity, was no longer attainable in the changing global world and system. In the recent world economic forum held at st Petersburg in Russia, president Vladimir Putin opined that the era and period where one country could dictate and decide what should happen, are over. He emphasized that Russia will commit all within her disposal in restoring the world within the ideal of multipolarity. His statement was reechoed by the Ethiopian ambassador to Russia, who opined that the people of Ethiopia and government opposed a unilateral decision making, emphasizing that his country believe in the multipolarity international order anchored on win win basic approach. Most scholars were of the opinion that the reestablishment of multipolarity international order, will be beneficial especially to the global south, most especially in the decision making and implementation processes. Although, such view has been countered by some writers who argued otherwise. What many scholars are asking ? Could this war in Ukraine, lead to the emergence of multipolar international order. According to institute of strategic studies at Oxford university, emphasized that the level of reaction in terms of neutral stands adopted by countries especially those at global south, indicate that ' the inevitability is approaching. They further contend that, China and Russia are bent on ensuring that, the multipolar international order are enthroned at all costs, Citing their various collaboration in all sectors of economy and politics. At the recent concluded world olympics held in Beijing the Chinese capital, the two leaders agreed to cooperate without limit. They also agreed to work in synergy with other BRICS countries “ Brazil, India and South Africa in creating a new order anchored on the basis of multipolar powers. The lent these emerging powers could take in scuttling the unipolar order, has been a major discourse among the scholars of international politics.
In real politick, judging from the current crescendo of global events, it's obvious that, the thought of Thucydides on power politics, is playing out in 21st century politics. Thucydides in his analysis on power politics, emphasized that, for a new order to be enthroned in the replacement of the old in international system, the new has to fight with everything at their disposal. According to him, the two parties in the confrontation might either fought with everything at their disposal or agreed to cooperate based on win win basic approach. He further emphasized that, among the two, the former might win or lose, given way to the later who might also win or lose. But, he went further by stating that, the later in the event of victory might accommodate the former or suppressed her entirely. As the events kept unfolding, the scholars of international politics are observing keenly. The historians are also on the path observing and taken records. The 21st century global system is dynamizing, the level of its dynamic will be decided as event unfolded in the global system.
Written by Chinedu Ibe
A Historian, a Thinker and A Student of Ancient School of Learning