04/09/2026
El Niño is now firmly established and will intensify into a very strong event in the coming months. WMO forecasts show near 100% likelihood that it will persist through February 2027.
Fueled by exceptionally warm ocean conditions across the tropical Pacific, El Niño is expected to strengthen further during the coming months to a very strong intensity before peaking towards the end of 2026.
For September–November 2026, WMO multi-model forecasts indicate an increased likelihood of above-normal temperatures across almost all land areas, alongside rainfall patterns showing a pronounced and classic atmospheric response to the strong Pacific El Niño.
The intensifying El Niño is expected to have big impacts on rainfall and temperature patterns and associated risks of floods, drought and extreme heat. However, its intensity does not mean the same impacts everywhere. Effects vary according to location, season and other climate drivers.
“El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up. Sea surface temperatures are rising, temperatures keep climbing, and the world is in the danger zone of extreme weather. The race now is between rising risks and our commitment to take climate action and protect people. We must win that race,” said United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres.
WMO and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services are stepping up preparedness and early-warning efforts for an exceptional El Niño event.
“This exceptional El Niño demands exceptional preparation and response. Never before in the 50-year history of the World Meteorological Organization have we launched such a major mobilization with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services who are on the frontline of delivering the forecasts and services to save lives and livelihoods,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.
The latest WMO El Niño Update and Global Seasonal Climate Update, out now. 🔗 in bio.
