http://www.stevensstrategy.com/

Stevens Strategy, 12 Island View, PO Box 72, Grantham, NH (2026)

05/29/2026

Just the Facts: The Wall Street Journal reports that this summer may see the lowest teen employment rates since 1948, when federal tracking began. Additional insights include:

🔶 Entertainment and leisure employers, traditionally the main source of teen summer jobs, plan to fill 70% fewer positions than last year. Summer camp counselor postings on Indeed have decreased by nearly 30%.

🔶 Early projections illustrate that teens will gain only 790,000 jobs from May through July, the lowest summer hiring total in nearly 80 years. Last summer’s figure was 801,000, already a historic low reached without a recession.

🔶 Teen employment has declined from over 50% in the 1970s and 1980s to about 35% today. This reflects a long-term shift in how young Americans spend their pre-college years and the skills and experiences they bring to campus.

🔶 New York City’s Summer Youth Employment Program received over 200,000 applications for 100,000 positions. This suggests that while teen demand for work remains strong, job availability has declined, leaving many unable to find employment.

The implications for higher education are significant and often overlooked. Work experience has historically been a reliable predictor of college persistence. Students who have held jobs arrive with an understanding of schedules, accountability, and earned income, which supports academic success and financial independence.

As teen employment opportunities decline, colleges enroll students who are less financially prepared, less workplace-ready, and more reliant on institutional support. For enrollment managers, financial aid officers, and student success teams, the shrinking teen job market is an early warning sign already impacting incoming classes.

05/28/2026

Just the Facts: CUPA-HR's latest workforce data shows voluntary turnover across higher education has largely returned to pre-pandemic levels. For most employee groups, as seen below, the volatility of the post-pandemic period appears to be behind us. That's the good news. The picture for part-time and hourly staff is more complicated. Some other insights:

🔶 Voluntary turnover peaked in 2022 for nearly all employee groups, following a brief dip at the pandemic's onset in 2020, suggesting the workforce disruption was delayed — not avoided.

🔶 Tenure-track faculty, non-tenure-track faculty, and full-time exempt staff have now returned to pre-pandemic voluntary turnover levels, indicating stabilization at the core of most institutional workforces.

🔶 Part-time exempt, part-time non-exempt, and full-time non-exempt staff continue to turn over at rates above pre-pandemic baselines, signaling that stabilization has not reached the institution's most operationally vulnerable positions.

🔶 Involuntary turnover spiked across all employee categories in 2024 (covering November 2023 to November 2024), a trend worth watching as federal funding uncertainty and institutional restructuring continue into 2025 and beyond.

For institutions managing tight operating margins, the workforce risk isn't evenly distributed; it's concentrated in positions that are often hardest to recruit for, least compensated, and most directly student-facing.

05/26/2026

Just the Facts: New Zealand’s eight universities reported record international enrollment in 2025, according to Education New Zealand (ENZ) data published by Times Higher Education. More significant than the headline figure is the underlying shift: higher education now represents a much larger share of the country’s international student population. This focus on quality over volume is producing measurable results. Additional insights include:

🔶 In 2025, New Zealand’s eight universities enrolled 38,000 international students, a 14% increase over 2024 and 12% above the pre-pandemic peak in 2019. Universities are now the only major sector to have fully recovered and exceeded previous enrollment highs.

🔶 Universities now represent 41% of all international enrollments in New Zealand, up from 29% in 2019 and 21% in 2016. This growth reflects a national policy shift toward high-value, credential-bearing study rather than short-term language and vocational programs.

🔶 New Zealand reached its 2034 brand awareness target nine years ahead of schedule, with 22% of prospective international students now ranking it among their top three study destinations. This achievement will increase competitive pressure on traditional destinations, including the United States.

🔶 Students from China make up 47% of international university enrollments, followed by India at 12% and the U.S. at 6%. This concentration of source markets parallels trends at many American institutions and indicates that global competition for these students is intensifying.

The key takeaway for U.S. institutions is not only that New Zealand is growing, but that it is doing so by implementing measures American higher education has often discussed but not enacted: quality controls for providers, a unified national strategy, and a clear value proposition for graduate-level study.

As U.S. institutions face visa uncertainty, policy instability, and reputational challenges, competitors are methodically filling the gap. New Zealand’s enrollment gains are the direct result of strategic decisions made years in advance.

05/22/2026

Just the Facts: A national survey of 2,404 U.S. adults conducted in late 2025 by C&S and Hattaway Communications cuts through the noise of the higher ed trust debate with some of the most nuanced public opinion data in recent memory. Some insights:

🔶 Nearly three in four Americans (74%) say they trust colleges, universities, and community colleges to do what is right, but only 25% trust colleges “a great deal,” while 49% say they trust colleges only “somewhat,” making them supportive but persuadable in either direction.

🔶 Among the 74% who say they trust higher education, 63% also say higher ed needs major changes, 48% say colleges mostly serve the rich and powerful, and 43% say colleges look down on people without degrees, a portrait of ambivalence, not loyalty, that makes soft support far more fragile than the topline number suggests.

🔶 Among Americans who say they don’t trust higher education overall, 49% still trust their home state university, and 57% of all Americans engaged with a local college in some way in the past year—confirming that proximity is the most reliable trust-builder higher education has, and that national reputation is largely irrelevant to how most people form their views.

The strategic implication is not subtle: the institutions best positioned to rebuild public trust are not the ones with the strongest national brands; they’re the ones most embedded in their local communities. Americans don’t trust “higher education.” They trust the college down the road if they can see what it’s actually doing for them.

What's one thing your institution is doing locally that most people outside your campus never hear about?

05/21/2026

Just the Facts: A new HEPI/Jisc report analyzing two decades of the UK’s Student Academic Experience Survey examines how British university students develop their perceptions of value for money. The findings challenge conventional assumptions: students’ sense of value is influenced less by the amount paid and more by their daily classroom experiences. Additional key insights include:

🔶 Only 37% of UK students in 2025 reported receiving good or very good value for money from their course. This proportion has declined steadily since 2012, when tuition fees increased to £9,000, and has only recently returned to pre-pandemic levels after reaching its lowest point during the COVID-19 pandemic.

🔶 When students were asked to identify the factors considered when rating value for money, teaching quality (45%) and course content (41%) emerged as the most frequently cited. In contrast, tuition fees were mentioned by only 19%, indicating that students primarily assess value based on their educational experience rather than financial expenditure.

🔶 Students who expressed satisfaction with the number of timetabled sessions were more than twice as likely to report good or very good value for money (52%) compared to those who were dissatisfied (21%). This disparity persisted even after controlling for other variables in regression analysis.

🔶 Business and Administration students consistently reported the lowest value-for-money ratings among all subject groups (37%), while Medicine and Dentistry students reported the highest (51%). This 14-point difference across disciplines remained consistent throughout the 20-year dataset.

The strategic implication for U.S. institutions is clear: students do not primarily assess value by calculating tuition costs. Instead, they evaluate value based on the quality of their classes, the availability of professors, and the perceived organizational support and investment in their success. Addressing these concerns requires solutions beyond adjustments to pricing or financial aid strategies.

05/19/2026

Just the Facts: The Higher Education Policy Institute (HEPI) has released a comprehensive analysis based on 20 years of the Student Academic Experience Survey, incorporating 206,512 student responses from UK universities between 2006 and 2025.

Although the data is from the UK, the findings are highly relevant for American institutions facing similar challenges regarding value, belonging, and student financial pressures. The core conclusion applies in both contexts: institutional actions have a greater impact on student experience than student demographics. Additional insights include:

🔶 Teaching quality is the most significant factor influencing student satisfaction throughout the 20-year UK dataset. Helpful and supportive staff, clear course expectations, effective organization, and timely feedback consistently rank as the top contributors each year.

🔶 Sense of belonging and an inclusive campus are nearly as important as teaching quality in determining whether UK students perceive good value for money. Belonging is thus positioned as a core academic metric directly linked to perceived return on investment.

🔶 The 2025 UK survey revealed a notable decline in both perceived value for money and overall satisfaction. Researchers attribute this to financial stress and cost-of-living pressures, indicating that increased work commitments reduce students’ overall experience.

Two decades of UK data offer a clear message for U.S. institutional leaders: student experience depends more on institutional actions than on student demographics. Teaching quality, belonging, and staff accessibility are the primary drivers, highlighting where future strategic investments should focus.

05/15/2026

Just the Facts: The Texas Statewide Study on Postsecondary Value-added Earnings tracked 309,213 bachelor's degree-seeking students across 29 public institutions, following some cohorts for up to 15 years after entry. The findings demonstrate the long-term economic value of a bachelor's degree, but also reveal significant variation in institutional performance and a longer-than-expected payoff timeline for most students and families. Additional insights include:

🔶 Students who entered in 2008–09 reached a cumulative net value-added earnings figure of $86,806 by year 1 compared to their non-degree holding cohort members.

🔶 The largest financial deficit occurred in year 5 after entry, when cumulative net value-added earnings reached -$33,925. This was driven more by foregone earnings (peaking at -$21,776) than by tuition costs ($13,349), highlighting the need for institutions to address the true cost of college.

🔶 Break-even didn't arrive until year 9 after entry, and that pattern held consistently across all six cohorts studied (2008–09 through 2013–14)—meaning the 10-year payback window appears to be a structural feature of bachelor's degree economics, not an anomaly.

🔶 Ninety-three percent of institutional cohorts produced positive cumulative net VAE, but the range across institutions' research stretched from +$174,632 to -$14,803: a nearly $190,000 spread that dwarfs any difference in sticker price.

Simply: the bachelor's degree continues to provide value. However, the data challenges two narratives: it counters critics who question the degree's worth and urges institutions to address the nearly $190,000 gap in outcomes across peer institutions, which now serves as an accountability metric. Higher completion rates consistently correlate with better earnings outcomes. Institutions seeking to lead on value must prioritize retention.

05/14/2026

Just the Facts: A new Texas statewide study tracked 67,486 certificate-seeking students across 57 public institutions from 2008–09 to 2018–19. The study confirms that certificate programs provide measurable economic returns, but outcomes differ significantly by institution. As a result, the term “certificate program” has limited meaning without specifying the institution. Key findings include:

🔶 Certificate-seeking students reach break-even in year 4 and achieve cumulative net value-added earnings of $3,818 by year 5. These modest gains occur only after initial losses from tuition and foregone earnings are offset.

🔶 The steepest losses occurred in year 2 after entry, as seen below, when students’ combined tuition costs and foregone earnings produced a cumulative net VAE of -$3,461, underscoring that even short-credential programs carry real near-term financial risk.

🔶 Completion rates are the strongest predictor of positive outcomes. Institutions with higher certificate completion rates consistently deliver better earnings gains, demonstrating that credential attainment, rather than enrollment alone, drives value for both students and institutions.

A student selecting between certificate programs at two Texas institutions could experience a $58,000 difference in five-year earnings outcomes. For institutions serving adult learners and workforce-focused students, the link between completion and outcomes is now a key performance metric with direct financial implications.

05/12/2026

Just the Facts: The 2026 First-Year Experience Survey of more than 9,500 first-year students makes one thing clear: the college enrollment decision is rarely made by a student alone. Parents and guardians are exercising significant influence over some of the most consequential parts of the process. Some other insights:

🔶 Parents scored a 3.40 out of 5.0 in influence over total education budget, indicating that financial framing of a college choice is more of a family conversation than a student one.

🔶 Parental influence over anticipated student debt came in at 3.11, making cost and affordability the clear domain of family decision-making, while factors like major selection (2.40) and number of applications submitted (2.39) were much more student-driven

🔶 The share of students citing cost of living as a primary reason for not attending college rose from 51% to 67% in a single year — a 16-point jump that signals financial anxiety is not receding but intensifying across the household, not just for students.

🔶 Students who opt out are increasingly entering the workforce directly rather than taking gap years. This behavioral shift suggests families are making near-term economic calculations, not just philosophical ones about college’s worth.

The implication for enrollment strategy is straightforward: if parents are the primary decision-makers on budget and debt, then institutions that communicate value primarily to students are pitching to the wrong audience at the wrong moment.

A financial aid letter sent to an 18-year-old doesn’t land the same way as a clear, early affordability conversation with the family. The institutions that figure out how to bring parents into the funnel early and speak directly to their financial concerns will have a structural advantage over those that don’t.

05/08/2026

Just the Facts: The recent 2026 First-Year Experience Survey, based on responses from over 9,500 first-year students, highlights a more competitive enrollment landscape at every stage. Students are applying to more institutions, accepting more offers, and delaying decisions, which increases pressure on enrollment teams. Key findings include:

🔶 Students now submit an average of 7.1 applications each, up from 6.1 five years ago. Institutions are therefore competing for attention across a much larger field.

🔶 The average number of admission offers per student rose to 5.2, while deposits remained steady at 1.4 for the fourth consecutive year. This confirms that applications and admission offers are no longer reliable indicators of enrollment intent.

🔶 40% of students who took a virtual tour visited the same school’s tour more than once, and 30% used virtual tours to compare institutions directly. A strong digital campus presence is now a key factor in competitive positioning.

🔶 First-generation students and students of color are the most active virtual tour users, with 49% of Black students and 45% of Hispanic students engaging with them. These groups were also more likely to report that virtual tours influenced both their application and enrollment decisions.

The data indicates that the enrollment funnel is now wider, longer, and more competitive than five years ago. Applications are no longer commitments, admission offers are no longer leverage, and deposits are increasingly the only meaningful metric.

For enrollment leaders, the key strategic question is not only how to attract interest, but also how to sustain engagement through the spring and convert it at critical moments.

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