Stevens Strategy

Stevens Strategy We are a full-service consulting firm specializing in managing the process of strategic change at co

Stevens Strategy is a full-service management consulting firm specializing in managing the process of strategic change at higher and secondary education institutions. We will be the firm colleges, universities and schools call when they must make critical decisions about their future.

Just the Facts: NACE’s 2026 Student Survey offers a fresh read on where the graduating class stands entering the labor m...
06/19/2026

Just the Facts: NACE’s 2026 Student Survey offers a fresh read on where the graduating class stands entering the labor market. While outcomes are holding steady relative to last year, they remain well below the post-pandemic highs of 2022 and 2023, and meaningful gaps are emerging across internship experience levels. Some other insights:

🔶 44% of 2026 bachelor’s degree graduates had at least one job offer in hand before graduation day, with the average graduate securing 0.79 offers — consistent with last year but a notable step back from the peak years following the pandemic.

🔶 Students who completed a paid internship outperformed their peers significantly: 55% of those who applied for a job received at least one offer, compared to the overall cohort rate, signaling that experiential learning remains a critical differentiator.

🔶 Paid interns with job offers were extended a higher average starting salary, $69,521 versus $61,747 for all graduates, a gap of nearly $8,000 that reflects the premium employers are placing on real-world, skills-based experience.

The data sends a clear message to private colleges and universities: the ROI on career-preparation infrastructure is measurable and growing. In an environment where employers are increasingly screening for demonstrated skills over GPA, institutions that embed paid internship pipelines, experiential learning, and AI-readiness programming into the undergraduate experience aren’t just serving students; they’re differentiating their value proposition in a tightening market.

For enrollment and academic leaders, this is a retention-and-yield argument hidden in a job market report.

Just the Facts: The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center's Final Spring Enrollment Trends report’s headline fi...
06/18/2026

Just the Facts: The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center's Final Spring Enrollment Trends report’s headline figure is positive, but the underlying details reveal an enrollment landscape that diverges sharply by sector, credential, and field of study:

🔶 Spring 2026 postsecondary enrollment reached 18.6 million students, up 1.0% from spring 2025 (+192,000). Undergraduate enrollment grew to 15.5 million (+1.3%), while graduate enrollment held flat at 3.1 million (-0.1%). The growth is real but modest, and it is not distributed evenly across the sector.

🔶 The gains came almost entirely from public institutions: community colleges grew 3.1% and public four-year institutions grew 1.5%. By contrast, private nonprofit and private for-profit four-year enrollment was essentially flat (-0.1% and -0.5%, respectively), underscoring the continued enrollment pressure on tuition-dependent private institutions.

🔶 Credential choices are shifting toward shorter, workforce-aligned pathways. Undergraduate certificate programs again posted the fastest growth of any award level (+10.2%), while master's program enrollment fell 1.3% to 2.0 million, declining at both public and private nonprofit four-year institutions. Graduate international enrollment dropped 4.3% (-7,000), driven by a 9.2% decline at public four-year institutions.

🔶 For the third consecutive year, Health Professions enrollment rose across all award levels and institution types (between 6.0% and 7.1%). Meanwhile, Computer and Information Sciences enrollment declined sharply, down 8.4% at four-year institutions and 11.2% at two-year institutions.

The data confirm that aggregate enrollment growth is masking significant structural divergence. Public institutions, short-term credentials, and health-aligned programs are absorbing the gains, while master's programs, international graduate pipelines, and once-dominant fields like computer science are contracting.

For tuition-dependent private institutions, a positive national headline offers little relief when the growth is concentrated in sectors and credentials they do not primarily serve.

Just the Facts: The June 2026 Intent Matters Most report from CollegeAPP and CAEL, based on over 200,000 national survey...
06/16/2026

Just the Facts: The June 2026 Intent Matters Most report from CollegeAPP and CAEL, based on over 200,000 national surveys of prospective adult students, provides the most comprehensive analysis to date of who intends to enroll, their motivations, and the barriers they face. Notably, more than 65 million adults intend to pursue education or training within the next two years. However, the data shows that intent does not always lead to enrollment. Additional insights include:

🔶 Just over one-quarter of adults ages 25–64 intend to enroll, with rates rising to 43% among Black adults, 41% among adults ages 25–34, and 40% among Hispanic and Latino adults. These figures indicate that the adult learner opportunity extends beyond the traditional “some college, no degree” narrative.

🔶 Fifty-two percent of adults intending to enroll prefer vocational, technical, or community college pathways over four-year institutions. Additionally, 75% express interest in hybrid learning. These findings highlight the importance of flexible program design and delivery, as well as recruitment strategies.

🔶 Eighty-one percent of respondents identify cost as the primary barrier to enrollment, followed by time constraints at 67%. These challenges reflect structural obstacles rather than a lack of motivation, and are the main reasons for low conversion rates.

The data reveal a large and diverse group of motivated adult learners who remain largely unreached because most institutions lack the infrastructure to support them. Subpopulations with the highest intent, including lower-income adults, younger adults, Black and Hispanic adults, also face the most significant structural barriers, highlighting a clear need for improved program design.

Institutions that view adult enrollment solely as an outreach challenge will continue to underperform. Those who approach it as an opportunity for structural redesign in affordability, scheduling, navigation, and credential pathways will be better positioned to convert intent into actual enrollment.

Just the Facts: USAFacts’ updated analysis of Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics data on bachelor’s degree ear...
06/11/2026

Just the Facts: USAFacts’ updated analysis of Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics data on bachelor’s degree earnings provides institutions with a data-driven framework to evaluate which programs fulfill their core objectives. Additional insights include:

🔶 Full-time prime working-age adults with a bachelor’s degree earned an average of $105,381 in 2024, 66% more than those with only a high school diploma.

🔶 The five bachelor’s-level occupations projected to add the most jobs through 2034, led by data science at 33.5% employment growth, all require STEM degrees. This highlights a growing gap between current enrollment demand and future labor market opportunities.

🔶 Five of the ten highest-earning degree fields are in engineering. Many top-paying occupations require at least five years of post-degree experience, a factor institutions should consider when communicating program value and setting graduate expectations.

With increasing federal accountability and greater student focus on return on investment, the earnings gap between majors has become a key strategic planning factor. For institutions considering academic or program reviews, this data offers a valuable external benchmark. Enrollment trends are important, but so is the earnings trajectory for graduates, especially as the OBBBA’s new accountability provisions link federal loan access to graduate earnings outcomes.

Programs with lower earnings outcomes are not necessarily candidates for elimination, as many address essential workforce needs and mission priorities. However, they require careful institutional review of cost structure, enrollment size, market positioning, and whether student debt is justified by the economic return.

Just the Facts: USAFacts’ updated visa data, corroborated by recent reports from Inside Higher Ed, NAFSA, and ICEF Monit...
06/09/2026

Just the Facts: USAFacts’ updated visa data, corroborated by recent reports from Inside Higher Ed, NAFSA, and ICEF Monitor, indicate a higher education enrollment crisis within the broader context of immigration trends. While overall U.S. visa issuance rebounded substantially following the pandemic, the student visa pipeline is now experiencing a pronounced contraction, driven by factors beyond temporary policy changes. Additional key findings include:

🔶 F-1 student visas issued from May through August 2025 decreased by 35.6% compared to the same period in 2024

🔶 Foreign student enrollment at U.S. universities in spring 2026 declined by 20% compared to the previous spring. Among surveyed institutions, 62% reported decreases across both undergraduate and graduate programs, with an average decline of 24% at the graduate level.

🔶 A new Department of Homeland Security (DHS) rule, potentially effective as early as September 2026, would eliminate the “duration of status” provision. As a result, most international students would be required to complete their programs within four years or fewer. This change introduces additional administrative complexity and timeline pressure, which is already reducing demand among prospective students.

🔶 New IDP research surveying over 5,800 prospective students across 118 countries finds that students are evaluating study destinations earlier and excluding the United States more quickly. Visa costs, policy uncertainty, and perceived barriers to entry have surpassed employability and affordability as primary concerns.

This trend presents significant challenges for tuition-dependent institutions. International students, especially at the graduate level, have long provided essential revenue, supporting domestic financial aid and underfunded programs. As international enrollment declines, institutions lacking sustainable domestic enrollment models face increasing financial pressure, with rising discount rates and fewer full-pay international students. Although overall visa issuance has recovered post-pandemic, this recovery has limited relevance for higher education institutions.

06/04/2026

Just the Facts: CNN’s new interactive guide to the federal student loan changes taking effect this summer outlines what may represent the most significant restructuring of higher education borrowing in a generation. Users can toggle in the interactive guide to estimate the cost of new and existing loans.

Initiated by the Trump administration’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), these changes affect borrowing processes, repayment structures, and the viability of loan forgiveness. The implications for enrollment managers and financial aid officers regarding student decision-making are immediate. Additional insights include:

🔶 As of July 1, 2026, Grad PLUS loans will be eliminated entirely. New borrowers will select between two repayment options: a new Repayment Assistance Plan (RAP) or a restructured standard plan.

🔶 Under the Repayment Assistance Plan (RAP), monthly payments will range from 1% to 10% of adjusted gross income, with a minimum payment of $10 and loan forgiveness available after 30 years.

🔶 More than 42 million Americans hold student loans totaling over $1.6 trillion, and over 12.5 million individuals were enrolled in income-driven repayment plans as of the first quarter of 2026.

With the elimination of Grad PLUS loans and extended income-driven forgiveness timelines, graduate and professional enrollment is likely to encounter new affordability challenges. For private colleges that already discount 57 cents of every tuition dollar, the potential for declining enrollment among cost-sensitive students represents a significant concern.

Just the Facts: The 2025 NACUBO Tuition Discounting Study, released this week, reports that private nonprofit colleges a...
06/02/2026

Just the Facts: The 2025 NACUBO Tuition Discounting Study, released this week, reports that private nonprofit colleges and universities are providing more institutional grant aid than ever before. Additional key findings include:

🔶 The average tuition discount rate for first-time, full-time undergraduates in fall 2025 is estimated at 57.1%. Institutions are now forgoing over half of their potential tuition revenue before enrollment begins.

🔶 90% of first-time undergraduates received institutional aid, the highest proportion since 2021–22. Eighty-four percent of all undergraduates received institutional grant support, indicating that published tuition prices are rarely paid in full at most private institutions.

🔶 Despite increased aid, net tuition revenue declined by 2.2% per first-time, full-time undergraduate and by 1.9% for all undergraduates in 2024–25, adjusted for inflation. The average institution received $21,300 per first-time student, demonstrating that enrollment growth alone does not offset declining revenue from higher discount rates.

🔶 Institutional aid is funded by a mix of sources: 32.5% from reserves, 11.5% from endowments, and 5% from philanthropy. Most discount funding comes directly from the institution rather than from donors or investment returns.

Private colleges increasingly rely on higher discount rates to attract students, yet the resulting revenue continues to decline in real terms. For tuition-dependent institutions without substantial endowments or reserves, this approach is unsustainable. The key strategic question is not whether to discount, but whether the current model can remain viable over the next decade.

Just the Facts: The Wall Street Journal reports that this summer may see the lowest teen employment rates since 1948, wh...
05/29/2026

Just the Facts: The Wall Street Journal reports that this summer may see the lowest teen employment rates since 1948, when federal tracking began. Additional insights include:

🔶 Entertainment and leisure employers, traditionally the main source of teen summer jobs, plan to fill 70% fewer positions than last year. Summer camp counselor postings on Indeed have decreased by nearly 30%.

🔶 Early projections illustrate that teens will gain only 790,000 jobs from May through July, the lowest summer hiring total in nearly 80 years. Last summer’s figure was 801,000, already a historic low reached without a recession.

🔶 Teen employment has declined from over 50% in the 1970s and 1980s to about 35% today. This reflects a long-term shift in how young Americans spend their pre-college years and the skills and experiences they bring to campus.

🔶 New York City’s Summer Youth Employment Program received over 200,000 applications for 100,000 positions. This suggests that while teen demand for work remains strong, job availability has declined, leaving many unable to find employment.

The implications for higher education are significant and often overlooked. Work experience has historically been a reliable predictor of college persistence. Students who have held jobs arrive with an understanding of schedules, accountability, and earned income, which supports academic success and financial independence.

As teen employment opportunities decline, colleges enroll students who are less financially prepared, less workplace-ready, and more reliant on institutional support. For enrollment managers, financial aid officers, and student success teams, the shrinking teen job market is an early warning sign already impacting incoming classes.

Just the Facts: CUPA-HR's latest workforce data shows voluntary turnover across higher education has largely returned to...
05/28/2026

Just the Facts: CUPA-HR's latest workforce data shows voluntary turnover across higher education has largely returned to pre-pandemic levels. For most employee groups, as seen below, the volatility of the post-pandemic period appears to be behind us. That's the good news. The picture for part-time and hourly staff is more complicated. Some other insights:

🔶 Voluntary turnover peaked in 2022 for nearly all employee groups, following a brief dip at the pandemic's onset in 2020, suggesting the workforce disruption was delayed — not avoided.

🔶 Tenure-track faculty, non-tenure-track faculty, and full-time exempt staff have now returned to pre-pandemic voluntary turnover levels, indicating stabilization at the core of most institutional workforces.

🔶 Part-time exempt, part-time non-exempt, and full-time non-exempt staff continue to turn over at rates above pre-pandemic baselines, signaling that stabilization has not reached the institution's most operationally vulnerable positions.

🔶 Involuntary turnover spiked across all employee categories in 2024 (covering November 2023 to November 2024), a trend worth watching as federal funding uncertainty and institutional restructuring continue into 2025 and beyond.

For institutions managing tight operating margins, the workforce risk isn't evenly distributed; it's concentrated in positions that are often hardest to recruit for, least compensated, and most directly student-facing.

Just the Facts: New Zealand’s eight universities reported record international enrollment in 2025, according to Educatio...
05/26/2026

Just the Facts: New Zealand’s eight universities reported record international enrollment in 2025, according to Education New Zealand (ENZ) data published by Times Higher Education. More significant than the headline figure is the underlying shift: higher education now represents a much larger share of the country’s international student population. This focus on quality over volume is producing measurable results. Additional insights include:

🔶 In 2025, New Zealand’s eight universities enrolled 38,000 international students, a 14% increase over 2024 and 12% above the pre-pandemic peak in 2019. Universities are now the only major sector to have fully recovered and exceeded previous enrollment highs.

🔶 Universities now represent 41% of all international enrollments in New Zealand, up from 29% in 2019 and 21% in 2016. This growth reflects a national policy shift toward high-value, credential-bearing study rather than short-term language and vocational programs.

🔶 New Zealand reached its 2034 brand awareness target nine years ahead of schedule, with 22% of prospective international students now ranking it among their top three study destinations. This achievement will increase competitive pressure on traditional destinations, including the United States.

🔶 Students from China make up 47% of international university enrollments, followed by India at 12% and the U.S. at 6%. This concentration of source markets parallels trends at many American institutions and indicates that global competition for these students is intensifying.

The key takeaway for U.S. institutions is not only that New Zealand is growing, but that it is doing so by implementing measures American higher education has often discussed but not enacted: quality controls for providers, a unified national strategy, and a clear value proposition for graduate-level study.

As U.S. institutions face visa uncertainty, policy instability, and reputational challenges, competitors are methodically filling the gap. New Zealand’s enrollment gains are the direct result of strategic decisions made years in advance.

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