05/25/2022
Chapman S, Alpers P, Agho K, Jones M. Australia's 1996 gun law reforms: faster falls in firearm deaths, firearm su***des, and a decade without mass shootings. Inj Prev. 2015 Oct;21(5):355-62. doi: 10.1136/ip.2006.013714rep. PMID: 26396147.
Abstract
Background: After a 1996 firearm massacre in Tasmania in which 35 people died, Australian governments united to remove semi-automatic and pump-action shotguns and rifles from civilian possession, as a key component of gun law reforms.
Objective: To determine whether Australia's 1996 major gun law reforms were associated with changes in rates of mass firearm homicides, total firearm deaths, firearm homicides and firearm su***des, and whether there were any apparent method substitution effects for total homicides and su***des.
Design: Observational study using official statistics. Negative binomial regression analysis of changes in firearm death rates and comparison of trends in pre-post gun law reform firearm-related mass killings.
Setting: Australia, 1979-2003.
Main outcome measures: Changes in trends of total firearm death rates, mass fatal shooting incidents, rates of firearm homicide, su***de and unintentional firearm deaths, and of total homicides and su***des per 100 000 population.
Results: In the 18 years before the gun law reforms, there were 13 mass shootings in Australia, and none in the 10.5 years afterwards. Declines in firearm-related deaths before the law reforms accelerated after the reforms for total firearm deaths (p=0.04), firearm su***des (p=0.007) and firearm homicides (p=0.15), but not for the smallest category of unintentional firearm deaths, which increased. No evidence of substitution effect for su***des or homicides was observed. The rates per 100 000 of total firearm deaths, firearm homicides and firearm su***des all at least doubled their existing rates of decline after the revised gun laws.
Conclusions: Australia's 1996 gun law reforms were followed by more than a decade free of fatal mass shootings, and accelerated declines in firearm deaths, particularly su***des. Total homicide rates followed the same pattern. Removing large numbers of rapid-firing fi****ms from civilians may be an effective way of reducing mass shootings, firearm homicides and firearm su***des.
