03/03/2022
Dr. Bukola Oyeniyi gave an interview on the effects of the Ukraine crisis on Africa. This video is in Yoruba. The English translation is provided by Dr. Oyeniyi.
https://www.bbc.com/yoruba/60598798
Impact of Russia invasion of Ukraine on Africa
1. On Education:
(i) Over 10,000 Moroccans and 5000 Nigerians are studying different courses in Medical Sciences in Ukraine, the war has caused them to negotiate with their feet, with many finding their ways into different parts of Europe to board flights home. Chances are that many of them are in harm’s way.
(ii) Parental investment, personal goal actualization, etc. are lost. Where parents took loans to offset their children’s education, they will not only pay these loans, but with nothing to show for obtaining the loans.
(iii) Long-term impact includes depletion in the number of doctors and other medical personnel that ought to accrue to Morocco and Nigeria from these students’ education.
2. On Commodity Prices:
(i) Ukraine and Russia produced 30 percent of global wheat and Africa, most especially Nigeria depends on import of wheat from Ukraine and Russia for its food and beverages supplies. Food like bread, cake, noodles, pasta, pizza, etc. and beverages like beer such as Trophy, 33, Maltina, Guinness products like Stout (Odeku), and alcoholic and other wheat-derivates will cost more.
(ii) Other products that are not derived from wheat will also attracts increase in price because Russia supplies gas to most countries in Europe. With sources of gas to these countries cut-off, production will decline or stop, and the unit price of products will increase. As at today, 36 percent of Africa’s wheat import is from Ukraine alone. What is the percentage from Russia? Will Russia sell to anyone if the war and its attendant economic sanctions drags?
3. On Transportation:
(i) Vehicles like Toyota, Honda, and Volkswagen are popular on Nigerian and African roads, while many Africans will quickly tell you that “this is a German car” and “that is a Japanese car”, little did we know that a great number of Toyota, Honda, and Volkswagen are manufactured in Russia. With Russia cut-off from the global trade, costs of these cars will go up. The implications are many. Once the price of new cars goes up, the cost and value of old ones will also jump up, which then will affect Africa.
(ii) Russia is one of the biggest suppliers of oil and gas, increasing sanctions will not only lead to increase in pump prices of oil and gas, which will affect ordinary Nigerians/Africans, but also affect global fertilizer supply. Fertilizer is a derivative from crude oil. Low natural soil fertility in Africa means that Africa’s lands need fertilizer for food production and a decrease in fertilizer supply means poor yield, food insecurity, competition over rich land and therefore ethnic conflicts.
4. On Regional Governance:
Recently, we have witnessed military coups in Burkina Faso, the Central African Republic, Guinea, and Mali. One common observable development in these cases was the open invitation both the military leaders and their supporters were giving Russia.
Not only were they openly courting Russia, but they were also inviting Russian mercenaries from the Wagner Group to tackle jihadists in the Sahel. Kenya, Ghana, and others have openly denounced Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, while South Africa remained neutral for many weeks. Until last Thursday, RSA did not make any categorical statement either for or against the invasion. Nigeria, till date, have not declared a stance either for or against the invasion. With China not committing either way and given Africa’s trade relations with China, are African leaders ready to commit to another round of Cold War power play? What are the implications of all these on regional stability in Africa? Would these not result in the resurgence of Cold War power play between USA and Russia on African soil?
Ojọ̀gbọ̀n Bukola Oyeniyi to jẹ́ akọ́sẹ́mọsẹ́ nipa itan ilẹ̀ Yuroopu sọrọ nipa ipa ńlá ti àwọn orílẹ̀-èdè méjéèjì ń kó lórí ètò àgbáyé.
