farmdoc Daily

03/18/2026

THE IRAN CONFLICT: POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON 2026 CORN AND SOYBEAN RETURNS

Conflict in the Middle East is raising energy and fertilizer prices, which will affect 2026 corn and soybean returns. While corn and soybean prices increased following the start of the conflict, both have had sharp declines since March 13th. The impacts of fertilizer cost increases this year may not be large on many farms, as a significant portion of the purchases of these inputs have already occurred. The overall impact on costs will depend on the length of the conflict. In particular, energy and fertilizer prices could increase more if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for a lengthy period, or if long-term Iranian oil production is seriously degraded.

Read more: https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2026/03/the-iran-conflict-potential-impacts-on-2026-corn-and-soybean-returns.html

03/17/2026

BRAZIL HEADS FOR A RECORD SOYBEAN HARVEST AS FARM MARGINS APPROACH BREAKEVEN

Brazil is heading toward another record soybean harvest in 2025-26, driven by expanded acreage and favorable yields in the country’s main producing regions. However, unlike previous seasons, when record harvests were often associated with strong profitability, this year’s crop is happening in a much more challenging economic environment. Lower soybean prices, elevated production costs, and weaker export premiums have compressed margins for Brazilian farmers – pushing profitability to its lowest level in nearly two decades and close to breakeven. Tighter margins are likely to limit producers’ willingness and financial capacity to bring new land into production, especially in regions where production risks and investment requirements are higher.

Read more: https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2026/03/brazil-heads-for-a-record-soybean-harvest-as-farm-margins-approach-breakeven.html

03/16/2026

IMPACTS OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN RMA PROJECTED PRICES AND FUTURES PRICES ON THE LEVEL AND FREQUENCY OF CROP INSURANCE INDEMNITY PAYMENTS

It is important to appreciate the nuances that arise from the process used to establish Projected Prices and the differences that can accrue when market prices differ over the crop insurance sales period. In years like 2025, when market prices decreased after the price discovery period, crop insurance can carry a “boost” of value relative to expected market revenue, and in years like 2026 with increases in market prices, the role of crop insurance in impacting total expected revenue is reduced relative to a case in which Projected Prices and futures prices were the same. Marketing activities including hedging at higher prices and the use of options to increase effective floor prices can be used to mitigate some of the impacts of market price changes not reflected in insured revenues as well.

Read more: https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2026/03/impacts-of-differences-between-rma-projected-prices-and-futures-prices-on-the-level-and-frequency-of-crop-insurance-indemnity-payments.html

03/12/2026

INSURANCE IMPACTS IN THE PRESENCE OF HIGH SUBSIDY — HIGH COVERAGE PRODUCTS: A CASE STUDY OF STAX

Crop insurance with high subsidy (now 80%) – high coverage area add-up insurance, specifically ECO (Enhanced Coverage Option) and SCO (Supplemental Coverage Option), has the potential to notably impact crop decisions and crop safety net performance. This article provides perspective on potential impacts by examining upland cotton net returns and planted acres since STAX (Stacked Income Protection Plan) area add-up insurance was first offered in 2015. STAX has always had an 80% subsidy. Since 2015, crop insurance with STAX has offset most market losses from planting cotton, likely impacting acres planted to upland cotton. Cost to the Federal government has been non-trivial.

Read more: https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2026/03/insurance-impacts-in-the-presence-of-high-subsidy-high-coverage-products-a-case-study-of-stax.html

03/11/2026

SCO, ECO, AND THE PROBABILITY OF REGRET

Increases in subsidy rates have generated additional interest in the potential use of the SCO and ECO insurance programs in 2026. One alternative of particular interest has been combining lower underlying farm-level coverage with the use of SCO and ECO. A common application of this strategy would be to lower RP coverage from 85% to 75% and then add SCO and ECO-95%. For most counties in Illinois this will result in a lower overall premium cost for the farmer (compared with RP-85%), a significant increase in expected net benefits (expected indemnities less farmer premium) and improved downside risk protection. In other words, in the majority of outcomes the farmer will be better off with RP-75%+SCO+ECO-95% than with RP-85%. However, there will be possible outcomes where this alternative will provide smaller indemnity payments to cover losses than the higher RP coverage baseline, resulting in the farmer regretting this decision. The likelihood of this occurring varies around 5% for corn and soybeans in Northern and Central Illinois and 8% in Southern Illinois.

Read more: https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2026/03/sco-eco-and-the-probability-of-regret.html

03/10/2026

CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE IN AFRICA AND THE IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S. TRADE POLICY

China’s Belt and Road Initiative has evolved from a strategy centered on infrastructure and economic development into one that increasingly combines investment with broader access to the Chinese market. The United States, by contrast, is at an inflection point in its trade policy with Africa. The African Growth and Opportunity Act has been reauthorized only through the end of 2026, and the Trump administration has indicated that any successor arrangement would place greater emphasis on expanding market access for U.S. businesses, farmers, and ranchers, potentially with more reciprocal terms. For U.S. ag trade, the longer-run stakes are worth keeping in mind. Africa’s population, and incomes are expected to rise substantially over the coming decades, and rising incomes tend to shift food demand toward higher-value products, including grains, protein, and processed foods, in which U.S. agriculture is competitive. Whether the U.S. retains a meaningful economic presence on the continent will depend in part on the policy choices it makes now, while China is actively working to deepen its own.

Read more: https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2026/03/from-infrastructure-investment-to-expanded-market-access-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-in-africa-and-the-implications-for-us-trade-policy.html

03/09/2026

PRODUCER SENTIMENT, FARM GROWTH AND TRANSITION PLANNING

Given the large difference in prices received and projected net return prospects, it is not surprising to find a large difference in producer sentiment between crop and livestock producers in the February 2026 Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer (AEB) survey. In contrast to producer sentiment, farm growth and transition plans are similar among crop and livestock producers. Approximately 50% of respondents to the February 2026 AEB survey plan to grow in the next five years, and approximately 36% of respondents plan to bring another family member into the business in the next five years.

Read more: https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2026/03/producer-sentiment-farm-growth-and-transition-planning.html

03/07/2026

In this 5-minute farmdoc update, we review the final 2026 Projected Prices and Volatility Factors recently released by the USDA’s Risk Management Agency. We ...

03/06/2026

Illinois Fuel and Fertilizer Cost Report for March 6, 2026 - Full Edition
ALL Illinois fertilizer and fuel prices are up.
SIGNIFICANT INCREASES
📈 Liquid Nitrogen 32%: UP $65/ton (+14.9%) to $500/ton
📈 Anhydrous Ammonia: UP $60.09/ton (+7.1%) to $903/ton
📈 No. 2 Farm Diesel: UP $0.76/gal (+24.2%) to $3.90/gal
📈 Biodiesel: UP $0.72/gal (+23.9%) to $3.73/gal
📈 Liquid Nitrogen 28%: UP $15.40/ton (+3.5%) to $450.58/ton

ALL Illinois fertilizer and fuel prices are up.SIGNIFICANT INCREASES:📈 Liquid Nitrogen 32%: UP $65/ton (+14.9%) to $500/ton📈 Anhydrous Ammonia: UP $60.09/t...

03/06/2026

Illinois Fuel and Fertilizer Cost Report for March 6, 2026 - Mobile Edition

ALL Illinois fertilizer and fuel prices are up.
SIGNIFICANT INCREASES
📈 Liquid Nitrogen 32%: UP $65/ton (+14.9%) to $500/ton
📈 Anhydrous Ammonia: UP $60.09/ton (+7.1%) to $903/ton
📈 No. 2 Farm Diesel: UP $0.76/gal (+24.2%) to $3.90/gal
📈 Biodiesel: UP $0.72/gal (+23.9%) to $3.73/gal
📈 Liquid Nitrogen 28%: UP $15.40/ton (+3.5%) to $450.58/ton

ALL Illinois fertilizer and fuel prices are up.SIGNIFICANT INCREASES📈 Liquid Nitrogen 32%: UP $65/ton (+14.9%) to $500/ton📈 Anhydrous Ammonia: UP $60.09/to...

03/06/2026

How have cropping patterns changed across Illinois in recent years?

FBFM Vice President of Data Analysis Brad Zwilling recently took a closer look at trends from 2015–2024 using FBFM data from Illinois. The findings show shifts in corn and soybean acreage across regions of the state, influenced by profitability, input costs, and weather conditions.

Understanding these trends can help provide context as you evaluate crop rotations and financial decisions for your own operation.

Bradley Zwilling - Over the last ten years, when we look at the costs of producing corn versus soybeans, it has been more profitable economically to produce soybeans than corn, except for 2021 and 2022. This explains the general downward trend in the percentage of corn acres in crop rotations in Ill...

03/06/2026

FLIPPING THE PYRAMID: PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS OF NEW DIETARY GUIDELINES

This January, the Dietary Guidelines for Americans (DGAs) were updated, including the release of a new inverted food pyramid. Using results from the most recent wave of the Gardner Food and Agricultural Policy Survey, we find that the majority of participants agreed that following each of the recommendations was important to the health of their household, with strongest support for the recommendation to “eat vegetables and fruits throughout the day.” We also find that most participants indicated following the recommendations was both realistic and affordable for their household, although lower rates of participants indicated their diets currently adhere to the recommendations. Perceptions of affordability differed across income groups, with lower income groups expressing lower rates of agreement than higher income groups.

Read more: https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2026/03/flipping-the-pyramid-public-perceptions-of-new-dietary-guidelines.html