08/16/2024
Belo Interviewed on Los Angeles Radio Station, Publishes Policy Paper
Dani Belo
Dani Belo, an assistant professor of international relations and security in the Department of History, Politics, and International Relations, was recently part of an interview with KNX Los Angeles about the North Korea-Russia Summit.
The radio interview highlighted the growing challenges the U.S. faces from global powers like Russia and China. According to Belo, as traditional warfare becomes increasingly cost-prohibitive, the need for effective diplomacy and conflict management has never been more crucial. Additionally, he emphasized that the likelihood of the U.S. unilaterally resolving global challenges is diminishing, making multilateral cooperation essential for addressing complex international issues.
Belo also published a policy paper on Taiwan-China deterrence, titled, “Taiwan’s Deterrence Equation: Calculating Gray Zone Strategies to Address China’s Assertiveness.”
Belo’s paper explores contemporary international dynamics where major shifts in global power are increasingly shaped by non-military means rather than traditional military conquests. It examines recent failures of military interventions, such as those by the U.S. in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya, and Russia's intervention in Ukraine, highlighting the limited effectiveness of conventional military force in achieving broader geopolitical objectives.
“Focusing specifically on China as well, the paper discusses various constraints in its military capabilities, including logistical challenges and the organizational complexities within the People's Liberation Army (PLA),” said Belo. “It underscores China's strategic pivot towards non-military strategies, particularly in the gray zone, where actions such as diplomatic isolation, economic coercion, cyber intrusions and information warfare are employed to achieve strategic goals without overtly triggering open warfare.”
Moreover, according to Belo, the paper advocates for a comprehensive deterrence strategy by the transatlantic community to address these gray zone threats effectively. “This strategy emphasizes the integration of military, diplomatic and civilian efforts to mitigate risks and maintain stability amid heightened geopolitical competition. Canada's role as a middle power is contextualized within this framework, emphasizing its diplomatic engagement, economic ties and support for democratic values as crucial elements in navigating relations with China and contributing to collective security efforts. By promoting robust bilateral and multilateral alliances, advocating for Taiwan's international presence and enhancing cybersecurity measures, Canada can play a significant role in bolstering deterrence against gray zone tactics while upholding liberal democratic principles in the face of emerging challenges to global stability.”