03/26/2024
Russia will push to end the war this year because 1) it has an opportunity created by the US Congress, and 2) it will hit its own production problems and weapons shortfalls in 2025.
Consider:
The director of Russia’s FSB, says unambiguously that he considers the USA, UK, and Ukraine responsible for the Moscow terrorist attack.
This matters, even if it’s no surprise. It’s a STRONG signal that the Kremlin is all in with this narrative.
Coupled with the announcement that they will form 2 new armies, I think the Kremlin is pushing to end the war by negotiation in 2024. Moscow is signaling to Kyiv that its best position in talks is now, with special emphasis on the fact that their American allies are effectively abandoning them.
But the truth is more complicated. Russia faces a severe bottleneck in vehicle and weapons production in 2025. They’re forcing the timeline because THEY need to force it.
If Ukraine can hang in, and the West can come through, 12-18 months from now the current situation could reverse.
Zelenskyi is in an unenviable spot. He cannot control the domestic politics of the U.S. or EU, and this is a necessary variable to reach victory.
No wartime leader wants to be in position where a variable of existential importance is outside his control.
The summer will tell. The truth is that I think Ukraine can defend both Kharkiv and Kyiv. Kyiv especially has been built up to defend against a land attack similar to 2022. Air is another matter. Kharkiv will be hard to hold for an extended period. It’s Ukraine’s second largest city, a university and innovation center - and a perfect bargaining chip for Russia in any negotiations.
The only comparable chip for Ukraine is Crimea. They’ve been hard at work whittling down the Black Sea Fleet. Perhaps….
Let’s hope. Until victory.
Recent anonymous insights from sources close to the Kremlin suggest that Russian political elites believe that Vladimir Putin is weighing two potential strategies to conclude the war in Ukraine.
